Jobs reported $1,000M to developers in the lifetime of the app store in Jun '10, so that's for the first two years. (~$1,400M gross revenue)[1]
Now asymco has that doubling to $2,000M in the following 7 months. It's possible, I suppose, but seems quite optimistic.
I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I think it's safe to say that iOS installed base hasn't doubled in the last seven months. I think I recall iOS market share being reported as growing 2% in the last 12 months.
That seems to leave the lions share of the revenue acceleration to increased ARPU. Higher ASP on the iPad may account for some but it's hard to believe it would be enough.
In more traditional stock analyst estimates, Citibank has 2011 app store revenue at "up to $2B" [2]. With asymco's estimates he says we're already exceeding that currently, showing $2.5B in yearly revenue with no growth. If you extrapolate asymco's growth curve that puts 2011 at more like $5B in gross revenue.
I just don't see it. I wouldn't be surprised if the estimated/assumed app ARPD of $0.29 is the issue.
iOS market share only growing by 2%? that subjectively feels wrong, and based only on iPhone growth (and it feels too small for that). In June '10, Jobs would have reported on iOS 3-based sales for iPhone, iPod touch, and merely 3 months of U.S. iPad device count.
Fast forward 7 months and you've got iOS 4 devices and iPads worldwide, spurring different sorts of sales at what feel to me like slightly higher price points (I pay a bit more for iPad or Universal apps than iPhone-only apps).
Now asymco has that doubling to $2,000M in the following 7 months. It's possible, I suppose, but seems quite optimistic.
I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I think it's safe to say that iOS installed base hasn't doubled in the last seven months. I think I recall iOS market share being reported as growing 2% in the last 12 months.
That seems to leave the lions share of the revenue acceleration to increased ARPU. Higher ASP on the iPad may account for some but it's hard to believe it would be enough.
In more traditional stock analyst estimates, Citibank has 2011 app store revenue at "up to $2B" [2]. With asymco's estimates he says we're already exceeding that currently, showing $2.5B in yearly revenue with no growth. If you extrapolate asymco's growth curve that puts 2011 at more like $5B in gross revenue.
I just don't see it. I wouldn't be surprised if the estimated/assumed app ARPD of $0.29 is the issue.
[1] http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/06/23/app-store-1-of-apples...
[2] http://www.intomobile.com/2010/12/31/apple-app-store-iphone/