I'm not asking for predictions, I'm looking for a statistical analysis that takes into account historical weather, seasonal, and load across geographies weighted by use.
This is all measured and recorded. Has anyone analyzed it? Should I pay someone to do that myself? Is anyone interested to try?
If you look at the book "Sustainable Energy without the hot air" you will find it chock full of data. Problem is, it's for the UK, not the US. But FWIW, I think the UK is more north than the continental US.
Overall I thought the book was excellent. Some of the numbers are slightly off but a lot of the calulcations are intentionally back-of-the-envelope. What were the other issues you had with it?
Heating is a great example, solar hot water heaters or sunroofs can cheaply collect a lot of heat. Heat pumps can also extract energy from air pushing up there numbers.* Further, insulation can make a large difference without directly showing up on heating or cooling numbers. All of which make the "Heating, cooling 37 kWh/d" a meaningless number.
Transportation is another area, we don't care about the energy content of gas when IC engines have such terrible efficiency numbers.
"not on my street", "not in my back yard!" page 109 are also complexly arbitrary issues. Consider, farmers love wind power as a very small footprint brings significant revenue. Sheep can happy eat grass under a wind turbine.
(*): A solar room can collect heat which is then redistributed though a home or even concentrated by a heat pump at extreme efficiency to heat a house without being uncomfortably warm or ugly.
FWIW I read this[0] here, but IIRC it was not well received. Most of the complaints where about Nuclear's Profit model issues, not the actual presentation of data.
This is all measured and recorded. Has anyone analyzed it? Should I pay someone to do that myself? Is anyone interested to try?
That's what I'm asking.