this is why people are going native / retail media. & some people i.e those with a lot of money are going to CTV as well.

search ads have negative ROI.

Facebook/Instagram & linkedIn work to a certain extent.

80-90% of AI costs are related to inference. Once zAI served their new model entirely on Chinese chips for free then the nVidia jig is up.

who is going to pay back the money nVidia invests in AI labs, AI datacenter companies if the models are being served dirt cheap.

the Chinese are not the only competitor - Amazon with their Trainium, Google with their TPUs etc.

Nvidia might have a moat on training but on serving it's gonna be a blood bath.

But for now they're capturing 80% of all the AI spend so they gonna keep making money.

Pretty much fanfic. The gap between premise and execution remains limiting. Nvidia has adapted to changing markets better than anyone else up to this date which is what got them to the top in the first place. What makes you think "this time it's different?"

The fallacy I see repeatedly is someone spots a legitimate issue that could hurt Nvidia and by the time they have stood up the challenge to pull that off, Nvidia has pivoted and addressed it. Or more recently, they just acquired it like Groq.

For your premise to hold, you're asserting Nvidia is blind to inference. And yet his public positioning suggests otherwise.

https://qz.com/nvidia-gtc-2026-jensen-huang-keynote-takeaway...

What makes you think they've hit some sort of metaphorical iceberg and all they'll do before they sink is rearrange deck chairs?

I'm not saying the bet is against Nvidia the company as in how it executes, or enters new markets.

the bet is against the high margins in inference - when other capable players have entered the market as models become commoditized and the inference serving chips as well. Cerebrus ai etc are already showing custom silicon can make a dent while being served cheaper & faster.

I don't think anyone expects nvidia to "sink". We're concerned that competitive pressures and possible reductions from sky-high demand could make it really hard for nv to justify or maintain their current valuation.

That is, revenues may be unusually cyclically high.

It's going to be hard for frontier labs to keep spending at this rate without starting to make money. And even if they do, lower cost alternatives will likely impact at least to -some- extent how much of that revenue nv gets.

Have you ever checked out the beta on Nvidia stock? Not to mention its surprisingly sane P/E ratio?

Compare and contrast with Tesla.

I know the P/E isn't completely nuts.

It still prices in revenue growth.

It is possible that nv maintains an absolutely dominant market position and total amount spent on GPUs continues to rise.

It's also possible that either of these things doesn't happen.

That doesn't really have anything to do with what I said.

> But for now they're capturing 80% of all the AI spend so they gonna keep making money.

And this is why the stock remains high. This hasn't even started to make a dent in Nvidia's bottom line yet.

These comparisons to Enron are absurd when Nvidia is generating this much cash flow.

Let's see the other alternatives come online and start taking away sales.

There is the Law of Demand. As ai costs plummet, demand increases, just nobody knows the curve shape yet. But could be that cheap inference is how all the AI supply meets the demand

> There is the Law of Demand

What is this?

Demand functions (price as a function of quantity demanded) take all kinds of shapes. Veblen goods are the silly example of wrong-sloped demand [1]. The in-vogue example of sigmoid demand, however, is hot water–make hot water (or lighting, for that matter, as another comment today pointed out for LEDs) cheaper and there is a limit to the things we want hot water for. Halving the cost of hot water doesn't induce much new hot-water demand, it increases demand for other goods and services.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veblen_good

I don't think that follows when free plans to get people interested are still a thing. Most people aren't paying anything at all.

2.5 flash was also good to use with as the llm layer for voice products.

but google gonna google.

the Houthis won't desert as they're fighting an ideological war vs the Saudi backed forces which are just mercenaries.

idealogical fighters fight to the death. & in almost every case besides the nazi's etc they always win. whether the ideology is right or wrong that's a conversation for a different day.

what's worrying is they knew they were going after an operator whose organization they recognized as competent in terms of carrying out operations, recruiting and passing down information.

& they sat on it.

that's gross negligence honestly - if your adversary seems competent - you've to destroy them at the earliest chance before they amass more resources.

that's my only gripe with deepseek honestly

em-dash by Cloudflare looks interesting in terms of replacing Wordpress.

by garnering enough of an ecosystem to cause a migration will be the bigger challenge.

of course some people will say in the age of agents will people need to visit websites ;)

Am I looking at the right thing?

https://github.com/emdash-cms/emdash

> EmDash depends on Dynamic Workers to run secure sandboxed plugins. Dynamic Workers are currently only available on paid accounts. Upgrade your account (starting at $5/mo) or comment out the worker_loaders block of your wrangler.jsonc configuration file to disable plugins.

Seems like a pretty poor replacement for WordPress, which will run on pretty much whatever random system happens to be within eyesight.

It can be deployed to a node.js server with sqlite https://docs.emdashcms.com/deployment/nodejs/

Not as simple as wp, but not tied to one hosting provider.

The sandboxing requires CF workers though, as it depends on V8 isolates. Seems fair enough, but it'd be nice to see easily deployable cross-platform support someday for isolates or something similar, and not just for emdash.

A CMS that can only run on one hosting provider?

It can be deployed to a node.js server with sqlite https://docs.emdashcms.com/deployment/nodejs/

Not as simple as wp, but not tied to one hosting provider.

But then ... WP is not tied to one hosting provider. There are no shortage of hosting companies out there to which you can deploy WP. In fact, many make it so easy it is ridonc.

The whole USP for emdash is sandboxed plugins. Sandboxed plugins only work in Cloudflare.

Why is this getting downvoted. Is it because of a general anti-cloudflare sentiment?

in short they're TRUST networks.

which is also why crypto bros get confused.

I agree. things like tailwind etc should come out as by-products of products making money.

react was not facebook's product. rails was not 37signal's product. Kubernetes was not google's product.

blaming AI is not facing the reality of how tech products / open source is financed in our industry.

for a first foldable iteration - apple has hit it out the park compared to other foldables on the market.

when the google & Samsung ones first came out they were plagued with problems.

but I think apple should've also had a foldable in the form of a razr ultra since they already have an iPhone air.

Usually Apple waits for other companies to work out the low-hanging-fruit problems, so they don’t have to release a device with a bunch of low-hanging-fruit mistakes. As a result, you shouldn’t grade them on the “first iteration” scale. They intentionally waited for other companies to work out the details and now their device gets to compete with the developed offerings of those companies.

It still looks quite decent though.